Оцінка ризику забруднення водних об’єктів методом Монте-Карло

Abstract

The paper considers the topical problem of monitoring the environmental surface waters safety in conditions of uncertainty regarding the emission source power. The model is based on the fundamental solution of the advection-diffusion equation, where the source power is represented as a random variable with a normal distribution. The computational algorithm implemented in the Maple package allows not only to predict the average concentration of a substance, but also to calculate the probability of exceeding the maximum permissible limits.