Публікація: Сравнительный анализ методов прогнозирования трафика в телекоммуникационных системах
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2014
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Анотація
В работе приведены результаты сравнительного анализа эффективности применения различных методов прогнозирования к временным рядам объемов интернет-трафика телекоммуникационных систем. При проведении экспериментов наибольшая точность прогноза была получена при использовании нелинейных регрессионных моделей временных рядов.
This paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of different time series forecasting methods applied to telecommunication systems Internet traffic. To test the accuracy of these methods several experiments were held using real data from public Wi-Fi Internet gateway in different time periods. In addition different time scales (1s, 1min, 10 min) were analyzed. The experiment shows a presence of relatively small but significant linear correlation between first lags which justifies linear model application for network traffic prediction. Two different forecast approaches were used: traffic amount prediction and time series sign classification. Obtained results show the efficiency of non-linear regression models (neural networks and logistic regression) for traffic amount prediction and non-linear regression and decision trees (algorithm C4.5) for sign classification. Also was shown that model efficiency strongly depends from data gathering interval. For sign classification depending on forecasting lookahead the difference between nonlinear models and decision trees decreases from 3,15% on 1 step to 0,72% on 20 steps. For both cases logistic regression is the most preferable method due to the balance between efficiency and complexity. Obtained results can be used for increasing the efficiency of automatic network managements systems and in traffic modeling tasks.
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Ключові слова
точность прогноза, методы прогнозирования
Бібліографічний опис
Сравнительный анализ методов прогнозирования трафика в телекоммуникационных системах / К. М. Руккас, Ю. В. Соляник, К. А. Овчинников, Олоту Олуватосин Давид // Проблеми телекомунікацій. – 2014. – № 1(13). – С. 84–95.